PPROACHES TO ASSESSMENT OF RA FOREIGN STATE DEBT
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59982/18294359-23.14-ha-02
Abstract
In 2021, the RA state debt amounted to 9 billion 226 million US dollars, compared to the previous year, the increase was 15.8%, the majority of which, 6 billion 643 million dollars, was the foreign state debt. The main emphasis of the RA Government’s policy aimed at reducing the state debt is about ensuring double-digit economic growth and export oriented policy.
In the context of the reduction of the external debt burden of RA, the development of the internal borrowing market, ensuring the progression of participation in the international capital market, and the implementation of policies promoting exports are of key importance. Therefore, it is important to combine the provision of the mentioned tools with the existing fiscal rules, ensuring fiscal prudence.
As a result of our previous study, the thesis that there is a strong relationship between real wages and government bonds, therefore, the increase in the volume of government bond purchases in the long-term horizon can significantly weaken the structure of the government debt from external borrowings. Armenia’s dependence, reducing the sensitivity to interest rate shocks, which is what our previous “Assessment of the stability analysis of RA public debt using the MAC DSA methodology of the International Monetary Fund” was rated highly as a result of the research.
Although the foreign state debt of RA was serviced without any obstacles during the war and “Covid” periods, we believe that in order to ensure the manageability of the RA state debt, the basis of debt management should not be the problem of reducing the size of the debt or the continuous growth of volumes, but of increasing the efficiency of its use. goal setting, which will contribute to economic growth, neutralizing the risk of public debt servicing as much as possible․
As a result of fiscal consolidation by the RA Government, the Debt-GDP ratio of 46.7 percent recorded in 2022 was the lowest rate compared to the previous 5 years, which will give RA a guarantee of higher reliability and creditworthiness in the context of deepening the integration of financial markets.
Keywords: RA foreign debt, debt management, government bonds, economic activity index, exchange rate.
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